瘦肉猪期货出现了生机！

　　加裕养猪评论　　　　Pork Commentary　　　　加裕总裁兼CEO  Jim Long　　　　Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc.　　　　瘦肉猪期货出现了生机！　　　　Lean Hog Futures Show Some Life!　　　　上周美国夏季瘦肉猪期货价格每磅上涨了6美分，或者大约12美元/头。在生猪市场持续下跌了几周之后，很高兴能够看到一些生机。目前瘦肉现货生猪价格是50美分，意味着大部分生猪生产商都在亏损，现在不是一个乐观的时机，生产商需要更高的价格。　　　　母猪屠宰量反映了盈利能力和扩张速度。美国今年1-3月的母猪屠宰量比去年同期高出24,000头。3月份就比去年同期高出15,000头。　　　　In the last week U.S summer lean hog futures have jumped 6￠ lb. or about $12.00 a head.  Its great to see some life in the hog market after watching it sink continually for the last few weeks.  Current Lean Cash hog price in the 50’s means most hog producers have been losing money, its not a fun time, producers need higher prices.　　　　Sow slaughter is a reflection of profitability and expansion.  The U.S sow slaughter January-March is 24,000 higher year over year.  March was 15,000 higher this year compared to last.　　　　今年母猪市场比去年行情更高。3月1日美国生猪报告指出，从16年12月1日到17年2月底，美国母猪存栏在下降。在我们看来母猪群体增长并不显著，年初至今更高的母猪屠宰量反映了这点。　　　　我们发现一些评论员的观点挺有意思的，他们认为是新的屠宰加工厂引起了母猪群体的扩张。可能是吧，但在我们看来，扩张的原因是盈利能力。自去年8月以来的情形看，我们行业还没有盈利能力。没有独立生产商是由于新屠宰加工厂而扩张的；他们只会为了利润而扩张。一些屠宰场所有者正在增加母猪屠宰数量，但是我们并不认为他们可以猛速增长母猪屠宰数量。一些拥有屠宰业务的大型养猪公司已经采购了现有母猪的设备；他们正在增加母猪群体，但是不是全部的母猪群体。　　　　Sow marketing’s are higher this year compared to last.  The March 1 U.S hogs and pigs report indicated a decrease in the U.S sow herd from Dec 1 to the end of Feb.  The higher sow slaughter year to date is a reflection in our opinion of a sow herd not growing significantly.　　　　We find it interesting when some commentators express the opinion that new packing plants are leading to rapid sowherd expansion.  Could be, but in our opinion expansion comes from profitability.  We haven’t had profitability as an industry that matters since last August.  No independent producer is expanding due to a new packer plant; independents will expand because of profits.  Some of the Packer owners are adding sows but we don’t believe its adding sows at a rapid rate.  Some of the pork powerhouses that are involved in packing have bought existing sow facilities; they are growing their sow herds but not the total sow herd.　　　　瘦肉猪期货　　　　Lean Hog Futures　　　　4月21日，7月的瘦肉猪期货为69.225美分，7天之后即上周五4月28日，7月瘦肉猪期货收盘于75.225美元。这里写到的上涨6美分，在10月份早些时候廋肉猪期货也有相同的涨幅，从4月21日的62.425美分，到4月28日收于66.650美分，每磅涨了4美分，每头猪增加了8美元。7月廋肉猪期货的增加遵循我们看到的过山车似的价格。3月14日，7月的价格从79美分下跌到4月21日的69美分，现在已经反弹到75美分了。　　　　On April 21 lean hog futures for July were 69.225 last Friday April 28, 7 days later July closed at 75.225.  The 6￠ lb. jump we wrote about earlier October lean hog futures also jumped ing from 62.425 April 21 closing April 28 66.650, 4￠ a lb. jump or about $8 per head.  The increase of July lean hog futures follow the roller coaster of prices we have seen. March 14, July was 79￠ dropped to 69￠ April 21 now have rebounded to 75￠.　　　　架子猪　　　　Feeder Pigs　　　　现货架子猪价格真实地反映了供应-需求-利润率。4月1日40磅的架子猪均价为每头77美元。上周，也就是4周之后美国40磅的架子猪均价为每头56美元。四周内每头猪降了20美元。同一时间瘦肉猪期货也下降了，跟下跌的架子猪价格一同，受到了重创。　　　　Cash Feeder Pig Prices are real reflection of supply – demand – profitability.  At the first of April 40 lb. feeder pigs were averaging $77 each.  Last week, four weeks later U.S 40 lb. feeder pigs averaged $56 each.  A drop of $20 per head in four weeks.  The lean hog futures dropped in the same time frame, with this drop feeder pig prices took a big hit.　　　　总结　　　　Summary　　　　我们根据母猪屠宰量提出疑问，母猪数量是否有显著扩张。我们知道新屠宰场的产能正在提升。出口市场和国内猪肉需求良好。我们期待今年夏天瘦肉猪价格能够被推高到每磅猪80美分。　　　　We look at sow slaughter and we question if there is significant sow expansion.  We know the new packing capacity is coming.  Exports and Domestic Pork Demand is od.  We expect lean hog prices will push to 80￠ lb. this summer.